Israel publicly calls on Iranians to rise up, but a released cable shows Israeli officials privately told the United States that the protesters would be massacred

A newly reviewed U.S. State Department cable has revealed that senior Israeli officials privately believe that Iranian protesters would be “slaughtered” if they take to the streets in defiance of the regime, despite Israel’s public calls for an uprising against Tehran’s leadership.

The cable, circulated by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, relays a grim assessment from Israeli officials regarding the situation in Iran.

Private Israeli Assessment: Protesters Will Be “Slaughtered”

As Trump eyes the climactic battle for Hormuz, he might give Iran a ‘taste of their own medicine’ by imploding the economy through a naval blockade

Israeli officials conveyed their belief to U.S. diplomats that if large numbers of Iranians return to the streets in protest, they will be met with deadly force by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who they claim have the upper hand in suppressing any dissent.

This assessment followed the February 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which Israel initially expected to trigger greater chaos within Iran’s ruling regime. Despite this bleak outlook, Israeli officials expressed hope that a popular revolt could still succeed, urging the United States to prepare to support Iranian protesters.

Israel’s Public and Private Contradiction

While Israeli officials privately acknowledged the harsh reality for protesters, publicly, Israel’s leadership has been more vocal in supporting an uprising.

Anduril’s new big deal at the Pentagon changes the rules for Silicon Valley and poses new risks

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on the “brave Iranian people to cast off the yoke of this murderous regime,” presenting an image of Israel as a staunch ally of the Iranian people.

However, this public stance starkly contrasts with the private belief that any mass protests would likely result in the deaths of many.

Israeli security cabinet member Ze’ev Elkin has stated that “Every day that we weaken this regime is a gain for the state of Israel,” further reinforcing the idea that Israel sees benefit in destabilizing Iran, even at the cost of Iranian lives. This dual messaging has raised concerns that it could be perceived as exploitative of the Iranian people’s suffering.

Global Reactions: Betrayal and Miscalculations

According to the WHO, a strike on a hospital in Sudan has killed at least 64 people

Experts like Narges Bajoghli of Johns Hopkins University have pointed out that these contradictory messages from Israel could be seen as manipulative, with the Iranian people potentially feeling betrayed by Israel’s assessment of their fate.

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, warned that such rhetoric could further inflame the situation without genuine regard for the well-being of protesters.

Former President Trump’s comments have also added to the complexity of the situation. Initially urging Iranians to “take over your government,” Trump later acknowledged the brutal response from Iran’s security forces, saying that they would kill protesters without hesitation.

He emphasized the significant challenge faced by protesters who are unarmed against a regime with military-grade weaponry.

Strategic Miscalculations and Escalating Conflict

Further complicating the situation, Israeli officials have underestimated Iran’s ability to continue its ballistic missile and drone strikes, despite heavy U.S.-Israeli strikes aimed at neutralizing these capabilities.

Maloney criticized this underestimation as a “badly informed assumption” that led to a strategic miscalculation on both Israeli and U.S. parts, exacerbating the tensions in the region.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Supreme Leader’s son and potential successor, is reportedly even more aligned with hard-liners than his father, ensuring that the regime’s crackdown on dissent remains unyielding.

As the conflict enters its third week, there is no clear end in sight, with both Iran’s internal struggles and external confrontations continuing to grow.

Regional Impact and Israel’s Agenda

The conflict’s escalation has spilled over Iran’s borders, particularly into Lebanon, where Israeli ground operations have sparked further regional instability. Bajoghli notes that Israel’s push for an uprising aligns with its long-standing goal of “fragmentation of Iran” and “state collapse,” rather than fostering a liberal democracy for the Iranian people.

The ultimate goal, according to Bajoghli, appears to be widening the divide between Iranian society and the regime, increasing internal divisions rather than addressing the population’s grievances.

SOURCE